Local, Not Aggregate Employment Is Affected by Robots, Automation, and Trade

From Scott Sumner,

​As you can see the employment ratio was about the same in 2007 as in 1990, and hence the aggregate data shows no evidence that either trade or automation reduced employment during the period studied by Autor, Card and Hanson, as well as Acemoglu and Restrepo.

Of course that doesn't mean these factors have not had a negative effect on overall employment, just that doing so would require a very sophisticated study. Unfortunately, the science of economics has not yet advanced to the point where that sort of study is feasible. And thus we are forced to admit that we simply don't know if there is any effect on overall employment.

​But I do think that we know that trade and automation raise real GDP.

The above was in response to a paper showing that local unemployment often results from deployment of robots. The same is seen as a result of automation and trade, which is why he includes the last sentence above. Local markets are affected by these structural changes, but not necessarily aggregate employment.